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Kaneda’s Pinball Podcast
Kaneda’s Pinball Podcast
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Episode 1210: "Has Stern LE FOMO Reached an End?"

PodcastAnalysis updated today23 min listen
TL;DR

Stern LE FOMO is dead; Pokemon price crash signals end of collector speculation era.

From the creator

Do collector's just not see $13,000+ in value anymore?

Listen on Kaneda’s Pinball Podcast

Synopsis

Kaneda analyzes whether Stern's Limited Edition FOMO has ended, examining Pokemon LE's dramatic price collapse from $25,000+ initial deposits to $14,500-$16,000 current market prices. He argues Stern LEs consistently lose value due to oversaturation (15,000-20,000 units annually), inferior materials compared to competitors, and lack of meaningful differentiation from Premium editions, contrasting this with boutique manufacturers' stronger value retention.

Highlights

  • Pokemon LE initial deposits reached $25,000-$27,000 (Charizard Edition), now trading at $14,500-$16,000 on April 13th
  • Every Stern LE released at $13,000 (Jaws, James Bond, Walking Dead, Star Wars, John Wick, X-Men, Foo Fighters) has lost substantial value
  • Stern manufactures 15,000-20,000 games annually, far exceeding competitors (Spooky ~1,000/year, Jersey Jack ~3,000/year), causing oversaturation
  • Pokemon LE only has 750 units produced, less than Jaws LE and prior Stern LEs
  • Evil Dead currently holds value at ~$18,000; Winchester Mystery House trades at $18,000+; Beetlejuice declining from $18,000 to $13,000-$14,000 over spots
  • Sonic the Hedgehog (Jersey Jack) will ship code-complete with four flippers and significantly more gameplay depth than Pokemon
  • Stern LE proposition no longer justifies $3,500 price premium over Premium edition without substantial mechanical/code differentiation
  • Pokemon LE lacks meaningful exclusive features beyond art; Stern needs exclusive modes, toppers, and reduced production (500 units max) to restore LE value
  • Beetlejuice gameplay issues (three-scoop mode, stop-and-go flow) are dampening value retention despite strong initial hype and art
  • Transformers and Fallout will not generate pre-release FOMO premium pricing; only a 'banger' theme (like Batman, Ghostbusters, Matrix, Die Hard) could revive Stern LE FOMO

Notable quotes

“Every single Stern LE that has come out that was $13,000, every single one has lost a ton of money.”
Kaneda
“Stern Pinball LE proposition just is not worth it...They need to do something more something further to really bake in the value of these LE machines.”
Kaneda
“I think Stern has done so many great themes over the years, but all these other companies are gathering up some of those other bangers that would have been made by Stern Pinball.”
Kaneda
“The one thing that really could slow down the hype on Beetlejuice, and you know what it is, it starts with a G, gameplay.”
Kaneda
“I think what we should demand for this much money is a little bit of both...You can make a game with a lot in it that also shoots tremendously well.”
Kaneda
“The moment to sell and scalp a game is before a single one is even made. The moment more make it out into the world, especially with Sterns, and the more you give people a chance to think about it, they're going to change their mind or they're going to wait.”
Kaneda
“It's anybody's guess where this market is going to go...Buy the games you love. Enjoy them. Don't worry what ranking they are on Pinside's top 100.”
Kaneda
“If they don't put in a Jigglypuff singing moment in this game, what are we even doing here?”
Kaneda

Entities

  • Jersey Jack Pinball· company
  • Spooky Pinball· company
  • Stern Pinball· company
  • Back to the Future· game
  • Beetlejuice· game
  • Evil Dead· game
  • Fallout· game
  • Godzilla· game
  • Goonies· game
  • Harry Potter· game
  • James Bond· game
  • Jaws· game
  • Jurassic Park· game
  • Pokemon· game
  • Sonic the Hedgehog· game
  • Star Wars· game
  • Tales of the Arabian Nights· game
  • Transformers· game
  • Walking Dead· game
  • Winchester Mystery House· game
  • X-Men· game
  • Pinside· organization
  • Kaneda· person
  • Keith Elwin· person
  • Steve Ritchie· person

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